Free Monte Carlo Simulator for Forex and Gold EA Backtests

This free Monte Carlo backtest analyzer lets you stress-test any MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, or cTrader backtest report. Upload your strategy tester HTML file and get instant Monte Carlo simulation with up to 5,000 permutations — completely free, no download required, and your data never leaves your browser.

What is Monte Carlo Analysis for Trading?

Monte Carlo simulation reshuffles the order of trades in your backtest to generate thousands of alternate equity curves. Since the original backtest shows just one possible sequence of trades, Monte Carlo analysis reveals how your drawdown, final equity, and risk metrics could vary under different trade orderings. This helps traders distinguish between genuine edge and lucky sequencing — critical for position sizing and risk management before deploying capital on live accounts.

What This Tool Calculates

Our Monte Carlo analyzer goes beyond basic trade reshuffling. It provides a complete robustness assessment including:

Drawdown confidence intervals at 50%, 90%, 95%, and 99% levels — so you know the realistic worst-case drawdown, not just the backtest's lucky outcome. Martingale detection that identifies if your EA uses hidden recovery trading or position sizing after losses. Robustness scoring from 0–100 across four statistical dimensions: drawdown position, distribution spread, predictability, and martingale safety. Plus a risk multiplier that quantifies the relationship between backtest position size and simulated drawdown at the 95% confidence level.

Supported Platforms

Works with backtest reports from MetaTrader 4 (.htm), MetaTrader 5 (.html), and cTrader (.html). Simply export your Strategy Tester report and upload the file. The parser automatically detects the platform, extracts the EA name, trade data, and starting balance. Supports both UTF-8 and UTF-16 encoded files.

Permutation vs Bootstrap Methods

Choose between two simulation methods. Permutation reshuffles your actual trades without replacement — the final equity is always the same but the drawdown path changes. This isolates the effect of trade ordering on risk. Bootstrap resamples trades with replacement, allowing some trades to appear multiple times while others are skipped. This produces variation in both final equity and drawdown, useful for estimating the uncertainty around your backtest results.

Privacy and Security

Your backtest data is processed entirely in your browser using JavaScript. No data is uploaded to any server. No account is required to use the tool. Your trading strategy details remain completely private.

Built by ErgodicLabs

This free Monte Carlo tool is part of Edge Matrix, a professional backtest validation platform that runs 17 statistical tests on your EA including temporal stability analysis, sample size validation, concentration risk, and a composite Edge Score. Monte Carlo is just the beginning — see what the full suite offers.