The Luck Factor: Why Two EAs With the Same Profit Factor Are Not the Same EA
Two EAs. Both run on EURUSD for four years. Both produce a profit factor of 1.82. Both show smooth equity curves with drawdowns under 12%.…
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Why Your Maximum Drawdown Is Almost Always a Lie, And the One Number You Should Use Instead
The maximum drawdown reported in a backtest is the largest peak-to-trough decline that occurred during the specific historical period tested. It is a fact about […]
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The Sharpe Ratio Is Lying to You
The Sharpe ratio is the most widely reported performance metric in algorithmic trading. It appears in every backtest report, every…
Five Scenarios, Five Outcomes: What the Iran War Actually Looks Like as a Probability Distribution
This article takes no position on who is right, who started what, or how the conflict should end. Those are…
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Why Gold Crashed During a War — And What It Means for Every XAUUSD Robot
The 2025–2026 gold cycle — a 113% rally from $2,624 to $5,589 followed by a 20% drawdown in under eight weeks — exposes a structural…
Gold Dropped $411 Today. Your Backtest Never Saw It Coming.
On March 19, 2026, gold dropped $411 in a single session — 8.2% in one candle, from $5,044 to $4,608. This followed a 53% rally…
Monte Carlo Simulation in Forex Backtesting: The Complete Guide for MT4, MT5 and cTrader
A backtest is a single path through history. Your EA ran across those specific years, in that specific sequence of price movements, and produced those…
The Binomial Test: The Only Way to Know If Your EA’s Win Rate Is Real
The EA has a 68% win rate over 120 trades. The developer presents this as evidence of a genuine edge — and on the surface,…
The Martingale EA Trap: How to Spot It Before It Blows Your Account
The EA has a 91% win rate. The equity curve rises steadily with barely a dip. Five years of backtest data. Maximum drawdown 4.2%. The…
The Hidden Risk in Every ‘Low Drawdown’ EA
The EA vendor’s sales page shows a beautiful equity curve. Maximum drawdown: 4.7%. Five years of data. Hundreds of trades. You check the myfxbook, the…